Global EV Sales Expected To Increase By 30% In 2025

Global electric vehicle (EV) sales are expected to grow by 30% year-over-year (YoY), reaching 15.1 million units in 2025. This would account for 16.7% of global light vehicle sales, which are projected to hit 89.6 million units, a 1.7% increase from the previous year. In comparison, 2024 estimates suggest 11.6 million EVs sold, with a market share of 13.2%, according to analysts at S&P Global Mobility.

S&P’s forecast highlights strong growth in key markets for 2025: India is set for a 117% increase in EV sales, capturing 7.5% of the market; Central and Western Europe is expected to see a 43.4% rise, reaching 20.4% market share; and the US is projected to grow by 36%, hitting 11.2% market share.

In China, the EV market share is expected to grow by 19.7%, reaching 29.7%, although some analysts, including those cited by the Financial Times, predict that EVs could outsell internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles there, potentially pushing the market share to over 50% in 2025. This difference might be due to the inclusion of “light vehicles,” which could encompass pickups.

S&P also forecasts that the penetration of new energy vehicles (NEVs) in China will rise from 49% this year to 58% next year. NEVs include plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) and fuel-cell vehicles, along with fully electric cars. The rise in EVs is largely driven by decreasing battery costs and strong national and regional subsidies.

Overall, the company anticipates that China will sell 25.8 million vehicles in 2024, with a 3% increase to 26.6 million units in 2025, despite weaker economic activity. The growth is attributed to factors like NEV and trade-in schemes, local government auto incentives, broader government stimulus, and ongoing vehicle price wars.

For the US, projected sales are 16 million units in 2024, rising by 1.2% to 16.2 million units in 2025. S&P points to uncertainties related to Donald Trump’s universal tariffs, deregulation, and inconsistent EV support as potential challenges.

In Europe, where sales are projected to be just under 15 million units in 2024, growing by only 0.1% to around 15 million units in 2025, S&P highlights several factors contributing to stagnant growth: cautious consumer behavior, strict emissions regulations for 2025, recession risks, high car prices, reduced EV subsidies, EV tariffs, and political uncertainty in Germany and France.

For Japan, with sales expected to be just under 4.4 million units in 2024 and rising 5.4% to 4.6 million units in 2025, S&P notes that US universal tariffs and weaker global economic conditions could impact exports, especially to North America. However, slower EV growth in the US could offer some relief.